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Demographic Models and Terms


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demographic transition
change in a society's CBR, CDR, and NIR over time
epidemiological transition
the change in health threats faced by a population from one stage of demographic transition to the next
demographic transition model
representation of the change in a society's CBR, CDR, and NIR separated into five stages
stage 1 DTM
high birth rates, high death rates, low population growth, short life expectancy
stage 2 DTM
high birth rates, declining death rates, high population growth (population boom), increasing life expectancy, most of Africa and LDCs
stage 3 DTM
declining birth rates, low death rates, decreasing population growth, NICs
stage 4 DTM
low birth rates, low death rates, stable and low population growth, MDCs
stage 5 DTM
birth rates lower than death rates, negative population growth, Japan/Germany/Greece
Malthusian Theory
states that population grows at an exponential rate while food supplies grow at a linear rate (population grows faster than food), so humans will eventually exceed the carrying capacity of the Earth
Malthusian Trap
point at which population exceeds food supply
j-curve
graph showing exponential growth
replacement rate
rate at which enough children are born on average to replace the older generations, generally above 2%
Boserupian Theory
states that population will not exceed food supply due to human innovations and invention, contrast to Malthus
pro-natalist policy
government laws or programs that encourage higher birth rates
anti-natalist policy
government laws or programs that attempt to decrease birth rates
demographic momentum
continued growth of a population after falling fertility rates due to a large proportion of the population entering reproductive years